Fragile supply chains due to port congestion, still have to endure high freight rates this year

The latest container freight index SCFI released by Shanghai Shipping Exchange reached 3739.72 points, with a weekly decline of 3.81%, falling for eight consecutive weeks. The European routes and Southeast Asian routes experienced higher declines, with weekly declines of 4.61% and 12.60% respectively. The port congestion problem remains unsolved, and the supply chain is still very fragile. Some large freight forwarding and logistics companies believe that if demand increases, freight rates may rebound this year.

The main reason for the decline in ocean freight rates is that the overall cargo volume is declining. In previous years, from the Chinese Spring Festival to March, the volume of goods will increase again, but this year, everyone waited from April to May, or even to June, the volume of goods has not rebounded, and then everyone realized that this is not a supply-side problem, but a problem. On the demand side, there is a problem with the demand in the United States.

This also reflects that the supply chain of U.S. ports and rail transportation is still very fragile. The current temporary relief cannot afford the volume of goods once the demand for commodities rebounds. As long as the demand increases, the situation of the port congestion is easy to happen again. In the remaining six months of 2022, everyone is alert to the rebound of the freight rate caused by the demand.

The Key Route Indices

European route: The European route maintains a situation of oversupply, and the market freight rate continues to decline, and the decline has expanded.

  • The freight index for European routes was 3753.4 points, down 3.4% from last week;
  • The freight index of the Eastern route was 3393.8 points, down 4.6% from last week;
  • The freight index of the western route was 4204.7 points, down 4.5% from last week.

North American routes: The demand for freight on the West American route is obviously insufficient, and the price of spot bookings has expanded; the supply and demand relationship on the East American route is relatively stable, and the freight rate trend is stable.

  • • The freight index of the US east route was 3207.5 points, down 0.5% from last week;
  • • The freight index on the US-Western route was 3535.7 points, down 5.0% from last week.

Middle East routes: Freight demand is sluggish, the supply of space on the route is excessive, and the spot market booking price continues to decline. The Middle East route index was 1988.9 points, down 9.8% from last week.

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Post time: Aug-09-2022