The policies of the new U.S. government are one of the biggest uncertainties for Vietnam’s economy in 2025.

The U.S. is Vietnam’s second-largest trading partner and its largest export market. As a highly export-dependent economy, any move by the U.S. will directly affect Vietnam’s economic development in the coming year.

Nguyen Thu Oanh, Director of the Price Statistics Department at the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, stated on January 6 that the Vietnamese government expects foreign investment to continue flowing in, while also preparing for a potential trade war during Trump’s second term with new tariffs.

At the same time, China has been Vietnam’s largest trading partner for years. According to data recently released by the General Administration of Customs of China, in 2024, China’s exports to Vietnam will surpass Japan for the first time. Unlike exports to Japan, many of the goods exported to Vietnam are intermediate products.

Zhou Shixin, Director of the Southeast Asia Research Center at the Shanghai Institute for International Studies, noted that Vietnam is highly reliant on China in the upstream of production and industrial chains. This has driven trade growth to new heights. Currently, cooperation between the two countries in high-tech and other fields continues to deepen, providing broader space for economic cooperation between the two nations.